Europe Divided Over Regulation of Prediction Markets as MiCA Deadline Approaches

(AsiaGameHub) –   Europe lacks a unified rulebook for prediction markets, placing operators between gambling legislation, financial oversight, and crypto compliance. By May 2026, Gibraltar had granted the first dedicated licence, while France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal had pursued formal measures against Polymarket.

Good to Know

• Gibraltar is the sole European jurisdiction offering a dedicated prediction market licence.
• France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal have deemed Polymarket illegal gambling.
• The 1 July MiCA deadline may compel crypto-native platforms to restrict EU users.

A Fast Growing Market With No Clear European Home

Prediction markets have expanded too significantly for regulators to overlook. Sector volume climbed from $32 million in January 2024 to $12.6 billion in January 2026, per SOFTSWISS, while Bernstein forecasts the global market could hit $1 trillion by 2030.

Yet Europe remains divided. Gibraltar has authorised ADI Predictstreet under a tailored framework, and Malta is weighing its own rules. The UK, Ireland, and Denmark occupy a grey area where prediction markets may be subject to gambling law, financial regulation, or both, depending on product structure.

Other nations have adopted stricter positions. France has declared all prediction market platforms unlawful. The Dutch KSA issued a penalty order against Adventure One QSS Inc. in relation to Polymarket. Belgium blacklisted Polymarket, and Portugal ordered the platform to cease operations, followed by ISP blocks.

Germany and Spain fall between these approaches. Both require local gambling approval, though neither has pursued the same named enforcement route as France or the Netherlands.

The July MiCA deadline introduces a further complication. Crypto-native prediction markets rely on outcome tokens, typically YES or NO contracts that settle at a fixed value after an event. Legal experts caution that EU regulators may view these tokens as unregistered, stablecoin-like instruments. Should this interpretation prevail, platforms may opt for EU geo-blocking rather than risk penalties.

That raises the key question for iGaming operators: is prohibition or restriction the right course?

The answer is not straightforward. Enforcement can shield consumers from unlicensed offerings, particularly in political betting and offshore crypto contexts. However, bans may also steer users toward sites lacking local oversight, safer gambling tools, or dispute channels. A licensed fixed-odds model could provide a more workable path for regulated betting operators, as some products may align with existing sports betting licences.

FIFA further complicates the discussion. ADI Predictstreet holds a 2026 World Cup partnership, creating a test case for European regulators. Blocking the official prediction market partner of the world’s largest football event may prove difficult, especially with Gibraltar supervision offering the operator an institutional base.

For now, the strongest legal footing is in Gibraltar. This does not guarantee EU-wide access, but it provides licensed operators with a credible foundation. A unified European framework still appears unlikely before regulators face a classification decision during 2026 or 2027.

FAQ

Which European Country Has Licensed Prediction Markets?

Gibraltar has issued a dedicated prediction market licence to ADI Predictstreet.

Where Is Polymarket Banned In Europe?

France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal have taken formal action against Polymarket.

Why Does MiCA Matter For Prediction Markets?

MiCA may classify crypto outcome tokens as unregistered, stablecoin-like instruments, creating fresh compliance risk from 1 July 2026.

Could iGaming Operators Benefit?

Yes. Fixed-odds prediction products may fit more readily within existing betting licences than crypto exchange models.

Is A Ban The Best Policy?

A ban may curb unlicensed access, yet it can also push users offshore. Licensing, payment checks, and product-specific rules may offer a clearer approach.